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The pitching staff as a whole struggled last season.
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"WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Detroit Tigers AnalysisDetroit Tigers Prospect NotebookDetroit Tigers Game ThreadsDetroit Tigers NewsDetroit Tigers PodcastsDetroit Tigers AnalysisWhich Tigers pitchers outperformed their 2018 ZiPS projections?New http://www.redsoxproshops.com/authentic-dustin-pedroia-jersey ,8commentsThe pitching staff as a whole struggled last season.ESTShareTweetShareShareWhich Tigers pitchers outperformed their 2018 ZiPS projections?Raj Mehta-USA TODAY SportsOn Tuesday, we took a look at Tigers batters who overachieved and underachieved according to their 2018 preseason ZiPS projections. Today, we shift our attention to the Detroit pitching staff, specifically the pitchers who logged at least 30 innings last season.As a reminder, ZiPS is one of many projection systems that takes historical data and aims to estimate a player’s performance in the upcoming season. ZiPS, in particular, provides projections for all of the key basic and advanced metrics, leading into an fWAR total.Though ZiPS is far from perfect, it is one of the best tools for predicting future performance, and has a lot of value in retroactive analysis as well. These posts are not looking to measure the validity of the projection system, but rather evaluate how players performed in relation to expectations. Unfortunately for Tigers pitchers in 2018, the final results were not too pretty when considering the initial baseline last March.2018 Tigers Pitchers ZiPS NameZiPSfWARDeltaNameZiPSfWARDeltaModest gainsOnly four of 15 Tigers pitchers ended with a 2018 fWAR higher than their ZiPS projection. This is...not good. The biggest gainer with 1.4 fWAR at season’s end was Joe Jimenez, the electric reliever and Closer of the Future. Jimenez thrived in his first real season in the majors, recording a 29.2 percent strikeout rate Bobby Doerr Jersey , which translated to a 2.91 FIP.Run prevention was a bit of an issue for Jimenez, and his 4.31 ERA was quite a bit higher than his FIP. Since fWAR is based on FIP instead of ERA, he had a decently productive season by that metric, but the Tigers will want to see a little improvement in actual results in 2019. Jimenez is still just 23 years old so there is plenty of room for growth.The second biggest gain came from reliever Victor Alcantara (+0.7), who appeared in 26 games last season, mostly in the second half. The right-hander had a 2.40 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, but recorded only 6.30 strikeouts per inning which led to a 4.53 FIP and a flat 0.0 fWAR. Alcantara should fight for a spot this season, but he is unlikely to be a key cog in the Tigers’ bullpen.Matthew Boyd (+0.5) experienced the best season of his young career, although the results were still limited. He posted career bests in innings (170 1/3), ERA (4.39), FIP (4.45), strikeout rate (22.4 percent), batting average against (.226), and fWAR (2.0). For Boyd Jimmie Foxx Jersey , the question becomes what his role can be going forward. The Tigers have a lot of young arms in the system, but there are not a ton of stable veterans currently in Detroit. If he continues to progress forward in both innings and productivity, he may be able to solidify a back-end spot in the rotation before some of the younger arms reach the big club.Trade woesOn the flip side, the biggest disappointments were all recent trade acquisitions who are still working to earn their place. Perhaps this is an overreaction for Michael Fulmer, who has earned the benefit of the doubt after stellar 2016 and 2017 seasons. Still, his 2018 was a sharp step back, and he fell -1.5 fWAR under expectation.Fulmer dealt with some injuries last season, which hopefully was the cause for his steep jump in both ERA (3.83 vs. 4.69) and FIP (3.67 vs. 4.52). Injuries were a concern for him as a prospect, however, so maybe this is just part of who he is. 2018 probably showed Tigers fans to temper expectations for Fulmer. He is still an excellent pitcher and someone to plan around in the future, but he is not likely to be a No. 1 starter or ace going forward.Maybe no starter needs a better 2019 than Daniel Norris (-1.3), who posted just 0.3 fWAR last season. Norris looked very promising in 2015 and 2016, but since then has dealt with health issues and minimal on-field production.The lefty did show glimpses of promise last year, featuring a career-best 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings http://www.redsoxproshops.com/authentic-dustin-pedroia-jersey , but he surrendered too many home runs (1.62 per nine innings) and hard contact (40.6 percent). Norris is extremely likable, but he is running out of time to prove his value.Shane Greene (-1.1) has been on quite a journey, transitioning from starter to reliever to closer. While he notched 32 saves in 2018, he did so with a 5.12 ERA and 4.61 FIP. The issues for Greene stemmed from a home run rate of 1.71 per nine innings, which overtook an improved K-BB% of 16.5 percent.Despite these issues, Greene still has enough potential as a back-end reliever to find his way into trade conversations. A first half of 2019 that mirrors his 2017 campaign should do enough to erase the memories of last season and make him an enticing option for a contender. A look at what’s happening around the majors today:MORE THAN A RENTALChris Archer makes his first start for the Pirates in what the team hopes could be the beginning of a long and productive stint in Pittsburgh. The Pirates acquired Archer from the Tampa Bay Rays ahead of Tuesday’s non-waiver trade deadline. Pittsburgh also got closer Keone Kela from the Texas Rangers and drew praise around baseball for acquiring players who will remain under team control for years. Archer has options in his contract that could keep him in Pittsburgh through 2021. Kela won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2021 season.The 29-year-old Archer, a former All-Star, hopes to help the Pirates earn a playoff spot. He made the postseason once in seven seasons with the Tampa Bay Rays. Pittsburgh got back into contention with an 11-game winning streak last month.EMPTY HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGETropicana Field is known as a tough place to play – not necessarily because of the Tampa Bay Rays, but because of the quiet, sterile atmosphere and the odd catwalks that sometimes catch balls in play. Tampa Bay ranks 29th among the 30 teams in average attendance, drawing 14,851 per game.Lately, though, the Rays have done their part. Tampa Bay is 20-4 at the Trop since June 11 Carl Yastrzemski Jersey , the best home record in the majors during that span, and can improve on that mark by winning the opener of a three-game series against the Chicago White Sox on Friday. The Rays have increasingly turned to “bullpen days” during their surge – using a reliever as the ”opener” to work an inning or two and then turning to a long reliever. That’s what they’ll do on Friday, too, with Ryne Stanek scheduled to start against Chicago’s Lucas Giolito.STRUGGLING SEVERINOThe Yankees hope their ace will get back on track amid turmoil at the bottom of their starting rotation. Luis Severino has allowed 17 earned runs over 19 1/3 innings in his last four starts, and the All-Star’s ERA has risen from 1.98 to 2.94 during that span. His most recent outing was the worst of the bunch as he allowed six runs in 4 1/3 innings in a loss to Kansas City. He takes the mound Friday against the rival Boston Red Sox and Rick Porcello (13-4, 4.03).BRYCE BASHESThe Washington Nationals are scoring runs in bunches, and Bryce Harper is a big reason why. Harper is 7 for 13 over his past four games with a homer and five RBIs, and the Nats followed up their 25-4 romp over the Mets by scoring 15 runs in winning their next two games. Having Adam Eaton and Daniel Murphy healthy enough to play every day has made a difference, along with the emergence of rookie Juan Soto, who’s been hitting behind Harper after Washington struggled to protect him through much of the first half.”When your seven-hole hitter is Daniel Murphy, you’ve got a chance,” Harper said after Wednesday’s game. ”It’s a special lineup.”—
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